The Grand National is just over a week away at Aintree, and after a much-changed betting market since Cheltenham, things have started to settle down, and the fancied runners are being backed.

Following the withdrawal of hot favourite Inothewayurthinkin, who won the Gold Cup in great style to bypass the National, Intense Raffles was made new favourite for the Aintree race.

He was one of just two runners in single figures when this happened, with those in behind not really sorting themselves out. But now that’s happened, and we’ve got four runners that have been supported.

Grand National Betting Market Taking Shape

Intense Raffles remains the favourite for the Grand National, he’s a best price of 15/2 to take the Aintree crown. A winner of the Irish Grand National, his stamina is assured, and there’s plenty of hope that he can step up to this race and go well.

We then have joint second favourites at 8/1 and begin with Stumptown, a horse who won very nicely in the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham to cement his place in this line-up. That 3m6f test is proof he’ll more than likely get this trip. He certainly wasn’t slowing down at the end of that race.

The unique test of the Cross Country fences is likely to help Stumptown here. He is used to races being a little different from the norm, and based on the betting market, plenty agree with that.

The other joint second favourite is Iroko, a horse owned by JP McManus, who took out Inothewayurthinkin from this race. For a long time, this horse has been seen as the JP McManus horse for the national, which alone is quite a statement when you consider his others.

It was said when he did have Inothewayurthinkin in the race, favourite at the time, and of course, he also owns I Am Maximus, who won the contest last year. To rank Iroko higher than those two is a bold statement, but it’s the view of many people around JP and has been for some time.

Finally, fourth best in the betting and the final horse at single figures, at a best price of 9/1, we have last year’s winner and another JP McManus runner, I Am Maximus.

He’s the one that’s been there and done it all before. The rest all have strong claims, winning other big races and proving their stamina, but none have done it at Aintree like this horse has. Yes, he has plenty more weight on his back this year, but he’s proven at Aintree.

How Will the Betting Market Evolve?

This is, of course, the million-dollar question that no one can really answer. But we can use what’s happened in the past to guide us.

Let’s be honest, betting on the National, the percentages on the book are terrible. We rarely see runners being pushed out. If there are four or five gambles, you’ll see these horses shorten, but nothing really goes the other way majorly to account for that.

So, if you see a gamble happening, and you’re on something else, don’t assume your price will go out because it may not.

I think there’s good reason to back all four runners at the head of the market, and others will see that, too. They can’t all keep shortening, but something will, and I think we’ll probably see a favourite go off around 6/1 on the day.

Current favourite Intense Raffles has the upper hand with his position in the market, but you can’t help but think Iroko is the one that could leapfrog them all, especially if the money comes. His owner is known for having a bet. He’s said plenty about this horse, and it all has the recipe that could deliver him the position at the top of the market on race day.