There’s a lot of talk about field sizes, especially in the bigger races on the calendar. But most of that talk is kept for the winter jumps season, when many are quick to point out the small numbers.
Perhaps that’s not quite right, though; it’s happening in flat racing, too.
Maybe the only reason we don’t mention it as much on the flat is because of the Irish, and mainly, Aidan O’Brien, who is masking the problem we have with the runners he’s continuing to send over to Britain.
Five of 15 St Leger Runners Trained in Britain
The Doncaster St Leger will take place in just over two weeks and is the final classic of the flat season, the last big three-year-old race for trainers to get their hands on.
At the latest stage of declarations, a total of 15 runners remain in the race. I’m expecting a single figure field, but at the moment, 15 are due to go to post.
Of those, just five are trained in Britain, a third of the runners, while the rest all come from Ireland. Amongst the 10 runners from Ireland are eight trained by O’Brien, while son Joseph is responsible for one of them, as is Paddy Twomey to round off the field.
If I were to guess the field on the day, I’d say eight or nine runners, the British horses standing their ground, and O’Brien cutting his runners down to three or four from the charge he’s currently got entered.
However it looks, and which ever figures you look at, the fact is that two weeks away from the classic, we’ve got a maximum of five British trained runners that are deemed good enough and fit enough to potentially run in the St Leger, a classic bid to round off the season.
Yes, you can talk about the distance of the St Leger, 1m6f, being an awkward one in the middle of the classic trips and the staying trips, which is a fair point. But the counter argument to that is that the St Leger is traditionally the weakest classic of the five we have, and I don’t think you need a superstar to run in it, if you’ve a decent horse, you can aim to get some nice place money here.
Scandinavia Strong Leger Favourite
It’s one of the eight O’Brien runners that heads the market, and that’s Scandinavia. He was 5th in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot, which is run over the same 1m6f distance as the St Leger.
The four in front of him that day could all come to the St Leger, but it’s not that form, more what he’s done since, as he’s matured, that makes him favourite for the final classic of the season.
Go back earlier in the summer, and he wasn’t amongst the early St Leger favourites, but his form since then has brought him to the head of the market.
He went to Newmarket, where he won the Group Three Bahrain Trophy over 1m5f, and he demolished the field that day, to win by eight and a half lengths in stylish fashion.
Next was the Goodwood Cup, a longer distance race over two miles, and one where he took on older horses. Despite being a stable second string, he came out on top, beating the classy Illinois by three-quarters of a length, keeping on well to the line and certainly not slowing down at the finish.
The form of his last two runs is much better than his Royal Ascot race, and the way in which he’s improved has been excellent. Let’s not forget he’s still only had seven career starts.
He will have to drop back in this trip, and that does look a worry as he appears to be an out-and-out stayer. One to be excited about for next season, with races such as the Ascot Gold Cup no doubt on the agenda to discuss over the winter.
But before we get there, let’s see if he can win a St Leger. He’s fancied to do so by the bookmakers.
