In 2023, animal rights protestors managed to disrupt the Grand National causing the start to be delayed. What followed was a chaotic event, with one horse, Hill Sixteen, dying as a result of a fall at the first fence. Those who support the horse racing industry said that the delay was a big part of the reason for the death of the horse, whilst those that are fighting to stop animals being used for entertainment said that horses dying in racing is the entire reason they protested in the first place. The start of the race was chaotic, with even lovers of the sport finding it tough to watch.

Within a month, the Jockey Club was applying to the High Court to get an injunction put in place in order to stop similar protests happening at Epsom Downs for the Derby, with the fear being that the group behind the Aintree protest, Animal Rising, would look to emulate Emily Davison in using the Derby to draw attention to their cause, with a similar loss of life possible. Whilst the ultimate aim of groups like Animal Rising is to get horse racing as a sport abandoned altogether, the question that the protests made many ask is: which is the more dangerous version of the sport?

Horse racing is a captivating sport that has captured the hearts of millions around the world. However, concerns about equine welfare and safety persist, leading to questions regarding the comparative risks faced by horses in different racing disciplines. One particular debate revolves around the mortality rates of horses in jump racing versus flat racing.

In this article, we will delve into the data, examine the factors at play and attempt to shed light on whether more horses die in one version of the sport over the other.

What The Numbers Tell Us

Determining whether more horses die in jump racing or flat racing requires a nuanced understanding of the sport, careful examination of available data and consideration of various influencing factors. Whilst jump racing carries a higher risk of falls and collisions with obstacles, flat racing’s focus on speed and endurance also presents its own set of challenges. By comprehensively analysing mortality rates and the contributing factors, we can continue to work towards enhancing equine safety in both racing disciplines, prioritising the welfare of these magnificent animals.

Jump racing, also known as National Hunt racing, features horses navigating obstacles such as hurdles and fences. The physical demands placed on horses in jump racing are often considered more rigorous compared to flat racing. The need for stamina, agility and accurate jumping ability adds an extra layer of complexity to this discipline.

Flat racing, on the other hand, takes place on a level track without any obstacles. The focus in flat racing lies primarily on speed and endurance. Horses compete against each other, aiming to cross the finish line first in these high-speed contests.

Whilst the absence of jumps reduces certain risks, the intense exertion and potential for collisions still pose safety concerns. On top of that, flat racing horses also tend to be much younger than their jump racing counter-parts, meaning that their muscles aren’t as well-developed and are therefore more likely to suffer from injuries.

In the world of horses, the nature of the animal means that any serious injury to their legs which will take time to heal might well end up being life-threatening, owing to the fact that horses can’t stand on injured legs long enough to heal.

Accurate and comprehensive data is essential for evaluating the mortality rates in both jump racing and flat racing. Researchers and racing authorities have made significant efforts to gather statistics to provide a clearer picture of equine fatalities in the sport. Although data availability may vary between regions, analysing the available information can still yield valuable insights. We know, for example, that the rate of horse mortality in racing has dropped by a third in the last 20 years or so, even whilst acknowledging that the death of any horse is a genuine tragedy.

In 2019, there were 91,937 starts for horses, with 173 of them sadly losing their lives. That is a mortality rate of 0.19%, which was down the from the 0.22% of horses that died from 93,004 starts in 2018. Of course, what complicates matters is the fact that that figure includes both flat and jump racing, rather than separating the two disciplines out in order to see whether one is more dangerous than the other. Here is how the numbers work out for 2019 when you break them down into the two disciplines:

It is fairly clear that jump racing is the more dangerous of the two disciplines, with the decision to talk about the two of them together helping to make the number of deaths caused by National Hunt events look slightly better than it actually is.

A horse taking part in jump racing in Britain is about seven times more likely to die than a horse taking part in flat racing. Little wonder, then, that the British Horseracing Authority consistently says that there is ‘more to be done’ when it comes to trying to find ways to better protect the horses that take part in races across the UK.

Looking At Other Years

Whatever it is that you’re talking about, looking at just one example is always tricky when it comes to analysing what the data means. Was 2019 a particularly good year in terms of the low number of horse fatalities, for example?

Conversely, was it actually a bad year and the number of horse deaths are usually much lower? It is impossible to know without adding the context of other years and the data from that to the conversation. The table above looks at the total number of deaths across a series of years.

The reason 1994 is in there is in order to show the difference in horse racing in the years since 1994, with the countless different changes that have been put in place in the industry since then.

Whilst more horses died in 2012, for example, it was actually a much lower percentage of the overall number of horses that took part in races that year. The fact that the BHA doesn’t offer specify breakdowns on whether more horses died in jump racing or flat racing is, in its own way, quite telling.

Factors Influencing Mortality Rates

Several factors contribute to the varying mortality rates between jump racing and flat racing. The type and severity of injuries sustained by horses differ across the disciplines. Jump racing presents a higher risk of falls and collisions with obstacles, potentially resulting in catastrophic injuries.

In contrast, the nature of flat racing places greater emphasis on speed, which may lead to musculoskeletal injuries such as fractures. Regardless, as soon as a horse suffers such an injury it is likely that the horse will need to be put down for the reasons outlined elsewhere.

It is also worth noting that track conditions play a crucial role in equine safety. Softer ground conditions are typically preferred in jump racing to reduce the impact on horses during jumps, whereas firmer surfaces are often favoured when it comes to flat racing in order to enhance speed.

The impact of weather, track maintenance and course design on injury rates should not be overlooked when comparing mortality rates. These are the things that the British Horseracing Authority has moved to improve over the years, doing everything possible to make things safer.

Even so, more can be done. In the Grand National, for example, a quick look at the data shows that around 39% of all of the horses manage to finish the race across a period of 39 years.

The highest number of finishes in terms of a percentage came in 1996 when 62.96% of the horses that started the race made it to the end. It is almost certainly no coincidence that only 27 horses started the race that year, compared to the normal field of 40 runners that have taken part in it since 1984. Should the ‘World’s Greatest Steeplechase’ have its field permanently limited?

Whilst that would be unlikely to appease the protestors and many casual horse racing fans might complain on account of the fact that it would change what makes the Aintree race so exciting, it is at least worth acknowledging that it is something that could improve the safety of the horses that are taking part in the event.

Given the stated aim of groups like Animal Rising is the welfare of the animals taking part in the races, that could be a request that they make of the horse racing industry that might at least be taken seriously and also put some protection in place for the horses.

Data Analysis and Controversies

Studies examining equine fatalities have provided valuable insights into the comparative risks between jump racing and flat racing. However, it is important to acknowledge that interpreting these findings can be complex. Some studies may focus on specific regions or time periods, limiting the information that we can get from their conclusions. Moreover, controversies surrounding data transparency and reporting standards within the racing industry can further complicate the analysis. The reality is that jump racing is the more dangerous discipline, but flat racing is not without its problems.

The analysis also doesn’t do enough to look at the age of the horses taking part in the racing. Is it possible that fewer horses would die in flat racing if the industry decided to focus on the safety of the horses over the speed of the races? This would mean that older horses could take part in the events and the risk of under-developed muscles being put under too much strain would be reduced.

Equally, what sort of a difference would changing the age of horses in jump racing make? Would asking them to be older mean that their experience would offer greater protection?

Here is a look at the age of ten horses that have died during the running of the Grand National, including the year that the race took place:

It is clear from the data here that the age of a horse alone doesn’t appear to be a contributing factor, with horses aging between 7 and 11 suffering fatal injuries taking part in the Aintree event. This is a good demonstration of how hard it is to come up with solutions to the problems that face the horse racing industry. It might make sense to ask for older horses, but the age of participants alone isn’t a big factor in their deaths.

Those within the industry might well point to the fact that only ten horses died across the 14 years in question, showing that the Grand National, which is considered to be one of the toughest jump races in the UK, isn’t as ‘deadly’ as critics might suggest.

Animal welfare campaigners, meanwhile, will ask the question ‘When will it be 0% of horses that die?’ It is a complicated issue, but the one thing that we can say with a degree of certainty is that it is jump racing that is the more deadly of the two disciplines.