In just over a week, we’ll have the first two classics of the season, as the 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas will run at Newmarket on the weekend of May 2nd and 3rd.
By now, we’ve usually had something to cling to, but the early classic trials have failed to really give us anything of note.
With Newmarket on the horizon, the flat season has started for good now, and there’s plenty of exciting horses to look forward to in the coming weeks.
The majority of horses at the top of both markets are those that haven’t run this season and are heading straight to their targets without a prep run, which tells you all you need to know.
Winter Favourite Bow Echo Remains 2000 Guineas Market Leader
Bow Echo has been top of the 2000 Guineas market over the winter, and that’s not changed despite a few runners behind him having an outing, and him going straight to the race.
Winner of the Royal Lodge at Newmarket on his final start, he’s a perfect three from three, winning all of them races over the mile trip, so he’s no problem staying the distance.
Three horses behind him in the market have been out and won, two winning recognised trials and one winning a conditions race that has been used as a prep before.
Alparslan is the latest, he won the Greenham Stakes at Newbury and is a best price of 20/1, a lively outsider at best.
John Gosden’s Oxagon won the biggest trial race, the Craven Stakes, run at Newmarket and over one mile like the 2000 Guineas, which pushed him in from 25/1 before that, to 12/1 now.
It was a good win, but the fact that he’s not in single figures tells you the strength of that race might not be as strong as some we’ve seen in the past.
According to the betting, the best of those to run so far this season is actually King’s Trail, who won a Kempton conditions race to go two from two in his career.
He’s a best price 8/1, and looks a big, raw horse who really could be anything. Both wins have come over a mile, and both have come on the Kempton all-weather surface, so he’s fine at the distance, but we’ve never seen him run on turf.
Precise the Main Ballydoyle Hope & 1000 Guineas Favourite
Aidan O’Brien has a handful of horses in both races, and when it comes to the 1000 Guineas, his number one contender, according to the betting, and has been Precise for some time.
We saw plenty from Precise last year she ran five times in total, winning all but her opening start. She ended her season with back-to-back Group 1 wins at Curragh and Newmarket.
That horse, along with Diamon Necklace, also from the yard, and the Karl Burke-trained Venetian Sun have all remained at the top of the betting market, despite not running so far.
Again, it’s another sign that the trial races this year haven’t quite produced the kind of winners we’d hoped for.
True Love is one O’Brien runner that has run this season, winning the Priory Belle Stakes at Leopardstown, which pushed her from 14/1 into a best price of 8/1 as the fourth favourite for the 1000 Guineas.
Azleet caused a massive shock to land the Nell Gwyn, arguably the strongest trial in recent years. She won that race at 50/1 and is 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas.
The winner of Saturday’s Fred Darling at Newbury was Sukanya, and as it stands, she’s not in the 1000 Guineas and would need to be supplemented.
Trainer Jack Channon said a decision would need to be made, as the race is tempting, but afterwards he was quick to say that she was entered in the Irish 1000 Guineas, and he thinks that race would suit her better.
A final runner to mention is Evolutionist, who hasn’t taken a traditional path so far, winning a Group 3 in Longchamp, more suited as a French Guineas trial. Still, there’s a chance Karl Burke sends her to Newmarket as a second-string runner behind Venetian Sun.
She was 50/1 before that success and is now 16/1 for the Newmarket Classic.
As you can see from the two markets, there’s a distinct split. Those at the top of the betting are horses that are yet to run this season, while the lively outsiders are those that have been winning trial races.
Given most should have a run, the takeaway from the betting has to be that bookmakers think the trial races have not been very strong this season, and are not likely to throw up Newmarket classic winners.
