Constitution Hill art

The Constitution Hill Conundrum

He’s the most talked about horse in racing, without a doubt, and we had another chapter in the Constitution Hill saga at Southwell on Friday night.

Making his flat debut, there was optimism, though plenty of uncertainty, running on the flat for the first time. Those who expected him to do something special were disappointed, and I’m not sure even his biggest fans would have expected him to do what he did.

Coming away from the field, he beat a horse that is potentially listed/group class, winning by nine and a half lengths, and not only that, but he did it on the bridle, quickening away in telling fashion.

It was the sign of a horse that could be put straight into group company next time out, if they wanted to. Immediately after the race, and over the weekend, there have been questions out there about what comes next and what the plan is.

Officially, we don’t know. But that’s not for a shortage of options. The Champion Hurdle, group racing on the flat in the spring, and even an autumn campaign ending with the Melbourne Cup have all been mentioned by those close to the horse.

So, what does come next? The million-dollar question.

Champion Hurdle Next?

cheltenham racourse fences and hurdles looking down the hillIf Nicky Henderson and owner Michael Buckley go hurdling, then I think they’ll only do that if it’s for the Champion Hurdle.

With what he’s shown in his last few starts over hurdles, and what he did on Friday night, I don’t think they’d risk him going over hurdles for anything else. It’s the Champion Hurdle or nothing.

And when I say that, I’m not limiting it to this year only. There could be a scenario where the horse runs once or twice more over hurdles, in this year’s Champion Hurdle, next year’s race, or both, and does nothing else over obstacles.

It would be unconventional, for sure, but I think we are in unconventional times with this horse. Trying to work out what a flat run did for hurdling prospects is impossible, but I do think there’s less chance of him going hurdling after being so impressive.

Flat Racing Options

rowley mile at newmarket flat racing

The flat is their second option. A Champion Hurdle winner, multiple grade one winner, does he need to go back hurdling and prove anything to us? He doesn’t, and of course, there’s plenty of risk, and a welfare element attached.

If he does go back to the flat, you’d assume jockey Oisin Murphy, who rode him to success at Southwell, would be the man to be on board again.

Henderson has already said he wouldn’t want the ground too quick, so for flat racing, that would mean early- and late-season contests.

There are options at the Newmarket Guineas meeting and the John Porter at Newbury in April that would suit him over a mile and a half. If they want to go up in trip, there’s the Yorkshire Cup at York in May, that could also work.

Alternatively, keeping him back for a big autumn campaign is also an option, and something that Michael Buckley has spoken about over the weekend. Something like the Irish St Leger has been mentioned for him (1m6f) and also the Ebor Handicap at York, over the same distance.

But there’s a bigger plan in play here, because Buckley sees all of that as a buildup to something even bigger. He wants to then go for the Melbourne Cup in Australia, which would be over two miles.

I think two miles would stretch him, but in the Melbourne Cup, you need a two miler with great pace and cruising speed, and Constitution Hill has that in abundance.

What Would I Do?

You’ve probably heard an opinion from everyone on this story over the weekend, but seeing as though you’ve asked, I’ll give you mine.

If he were my horse, I’d keep him on the flat and retire him from racing over hurdles. I think the horse showed just how much he loved racing on Friday night, and now, a nine-year-old, and such a grand servant, I don’t think we should take it away from him.

He’s been to the top over hurdles and doesn’t love the game anymore for whatever reason. Let’s put that to one side and see how close to the top he can get on the flat.

It would be an exciting couple of years for both the horse and us.

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