Aidan O’Brien has completely dominated the Epsom Derby trials so far this season, that is with the exception of the York Dante, which went the way of the Ralph Beckett trained Pride Of Arras.
Seen as the main trial for the race by many, me included, this was also where O’Brien decided to launch the season of his potential superstar The Lion In Winter.
But things didn’t go to plan, uneasy in the market, then the subject of support, he was sent off as the 8/11 favourite but could only finish 6th.
While others have won nicely, but not really established themselves as the top of the pecking order, The Lion In Winter has not won, but still seems to be the number one from that yard.
It seems punters have been quick to trust the judgement of O’Brien, rather than what they saw on the track, and why not of course. Immediately after the race, O’Brien was quick to say that his horse would improve dramatically for the run, he looked in need of it too, so much so, that you can put a line through the run.
Positive Betting Move a Few Days after Dante Run
The big market move, probably the biggest in the Derby market so far, came on Monday after the Dante, when The Lion In Winter was backed into favourite again, while stablemate Delacroix was reported as a big drifter.
Ahead of the Dante, The Lion In Winter was 11/4 to win the Derby at Epsom. After running poorly, he would then drift out to 5/1 for the race. But now, he’s rock solid at the head of the market again, generally a 5/2 chance.
We’ll find out the final field earlier than usual this year, with the Epsom Derby having 72 hour declarations this year as a trial to boost the build up period and international interest.
I don’t think anyone would have rushed to get on after watching the Dante, punters are putting their faith in a man, rather than their own eyes. I can’t blame them of course, Aidan has done this time and time again, he is a man we should trust.
But I do also wonder whether the name of the trainer means that bookmakers are over reacting a little here? Has there really been considerable money, or just a small amount, and then an over reaction by bookmakers to make sure they’re not caught out.
You also have to wonder what the public think too. Yes, O’Brien holds a fearsome reputation with punters, but at the same time, his horse ran terribly and has a lot to prove if he is to bounce back to the kind of level that got us all excited last season.
I’m really looking forward to the Derby, I think it’s got the potential to be one of the best we’ve seen for the past few years. I wonder if part of that is down to no superstar, not yet at least, and a bunch of really good horses that haven’t quite worked themselves out.
